Neighborhood Life Cycles
Source: HOUSES-By Henry S. Harrison (Revised
Addition)
Every neighborhood, whether urban or suburban, passes through
several phases in its life cycle. The first is a period
in which it grows most rapidly. Home buyers are attracted to
it and prices are on the rise. When prices reach a more
or less steady state, the neighborhood enters it second
stage. This stable period may last up to 40 to 50 years.
Finally and inevitably, the neighborhood enters a period of
decline as newer areas beginning their own patterns of growth
become more attractive to residents. Now the
neighborhood’s houses may become accessible to a lower-income
group less able to spend money on maintenance and
improvements, with a resulting deterioration of the
neighborhood. Houses may be converted to other uses such
as apartments, boarding houses or offices. They may be
completely razed to make way for large apartment or office
buildings. In any case, the character of the
neighborhood changes drastically.
Since neighborhoods are dynamic by nature, home buyers must be
able to tell what stage a given neighborhood is in. The
first factor to check is population. The growth in
population for each year in the last five or ten years is a
good indication of where in the cycle the neighborhood
is. If population is rising, the neighborhood is
probably on the way up. The population should also be
studied in terms of the occupations represented in the
neighborhood. A health percentage of junior executives,
foremen, skilled craftsmen and professional people is usually
a good sign.